Climate suitability models

Definition

In the context of ecological modelling, climate suitability refers to the extent to which the climatic conditions of a given area support the survival, growth, reproduction, and persistence of a species or ecological community.

CLIMOS models

The CLIMOS project has developed data-driven models that estimate potential distribution and activity of different sand fly species based on climatic conditions. The models use historical and projected climate data to map climatic suitability for survival, reproduction, and dispersion, supporting public health planning and risk assessment.

Method

Models are trained with observed presence/absence data and environmental variables. Learned climatic profiles are projected across space and time, including future climate scenarios.

• Phlebotomus alexandri
• Phlebotomus major
• Phlebotomus papatasi
• Phlebotomus perniciosus
• Phlebotomus similis
• Phlebotomus ariasi
• Phlebotomus mascittii
• Phlebotomus perfiliewi
• Phlebotomus sergenti
• Phlebotomus tobbi

Context

RCPs (IPCC AR5) include time series of emissions, GHG concentrations, aerosols, and land use, named by radiative forcing in 2100.

Historical

Characterizes the recent past (typically 1850–present) and is used to evaluate climate model performance.

Low: RCP2.6

Peaks near 3 W/m², declines to 2.6 W/m² by 2100. Expected global mean temperature increase: 0.3–1.7 °C.

Medium: RCP4.5

Stabilizes near 4.5 W/m² by 2100. Expected increase: 1.1–2.6 °C.

High: RCP8.5

Exceeds 8.5 W/m² by 2100. Expected increase: 2.6–4.8 °C.

Usage

Selected periods are used to calculate climate suitability and changes for a given scenario.

Baselines

• 1991–2020: WMO climate normals
• 1995–2014: Used in IPCC AR6
• 1986–2005: Used in IPCC AR5
• 1981–2010: WMO climate normals

pred

Climate suitability score (0–1) indicating favorability for sand fly presence/activity.

pred_anom

Suitability change — difference between suitability in reference and baseline period.

pred_relanom

Relative change in climate suitability.

pred_anom_agreement

Percentage of models agreeing on the sign of change (optionally shown with pred_anom).

The variable pred (climate suitability) is labeled as:

pred_annual_{reference_period}_{baseline}

This represents climatology for the given period. Though baseline appears in the name, it is not actually used for this variable.